Market Minute by: California Association of Realtors




Housing/Real Estate Market

 California Home Sales Fall in January: Existing, single-family home were down 3.9% from December and down 12.6% from January 2018 to their lowest level in more than a decade. January’s statewide median home price was $538,690, up 2.1% from last year. Active listings rose for the 10th straight month, increasing 27% from the previous year. With buyer demand reduced and more active inventory on the market, competitiveness over existing units has subsided in recent months.
Nationally, Home Prices Still Rising Moderately: Home prices continue to rise at a national level with 92% of metros covered by the National Association of REALTORS® posting gains in January. Home sales continued to struggle, but the housing market outside of California is seeing less slowing than in the Golden State.

Macro Economy
Homebuilder Optimism Bouncing Back?: After dipping considerably late last year as home sales waned, builders appear to be more confident as we enter 2019. The 6-point increase in February marks the second consecutive increase, with much of the rebound attributed to the reprieve on rates currently being enjoyed by prospective buyers.

Manufacturing Sector Still Struggling: Although the overall index for durable goods manufacturing increased, the amount of new orders for capital goods declined last month—signaling that business investment is likely to remain subdued over the near term. This is partially behind the lackluster economic forecast expected for 2019 in addition to a slowing housing market.

Real Estate Finance
Mortgage Rates Still Falling: After appearing to level off in recent weeks, mortgage rates resumed their slide last week with the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage dipping to its lowest level of the year at 4.35%. This is only a slight decline from 4.37% the previous week, but buyers do finally appear to be responding.

Mortgage Applications Show Signs of Life: After several disappointing weeks, lower interest rates may finally be enticing buyers back into the market. The Mortgage Bankers Association reports that the overall index rose by 3.7%. Purchase applications were up 2.5% and refinancing activity also improved. This comes after a month of weak activity, but it represents a positive sign for near-term home sales.

California Feels Effects of Natural Disasters on Delinquency: Despite the fact that delinquency rates were at their lowest levels in nearly 12 years, California saw some modest uptick in areas that have been affected by natural disasters over the past year. Overall, the rate of delinquency is still low, and the recent spike is likely transitory.

Past Market Minutes

February 11 - Over-asking-price home sales, consumer credit, trade deficit, mortgage application
February 4, 2019 - Residential construction, Feds Funds Rate, new home sales
January 22, 2019 - Home sales, consumer sentiment, and mortgage rates
January 14, 2019 - Home prices, job growth, interest ratesDecember 24, 2018 - Home sales, builder sentiment, stock market volatility 
December 17, 2018 - Delinquencies and foreclosures, job reports, inflationDecember 10, 2018 - Construction spending, unemployment, mortgage applicationsDecember 3, 2018 - Loan limits, national pending, gross domestic product, home delinquenciesOctober 29, 2018 - National pending, gross domestic product, mortgage applicationsOctober 15, 2018 -  Construction spending, stock market, mortgage applicationsOctober 1, 2018 - Revised permits, Chicago's fed, mortgage applications




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